Sunday, January 25, 2015

Super Bowl XLIX Preview & Pick

While a cloud of controversy continues to shroud the New England Patriots over deflated footballs heading into next Sunday's Super Bowl showdown against Seattle, the betting public continues to put its early money on Bill Belichick and Co's chances to add a fourth world title to his team's illustrious resume under the his watch. The Patriots opened as two-point underdogs when the Oddsmakers originally posted betting odds for this game, but on most sportsbooks' current board they are now favored by one or two points.

I did my original preview and pick for the Super Bowl early last week before this whole "Deflate Gate" issue really blew up (no pun intended) and I continue to be amazed how this situation has continued to dominate the majority of the discussion surrounding this game. Hopefully we can move on to some more meaningful topics this week that will actually have an impact on the outcome of this matchup.

To me, this game will come down to which of these two team's top strength (New England on offense and Seattle on defense) does a better job of imposing its will on the other's. They always say that defense win's championships, but I happen to think that points do; especially when you can score more of them than your opponent.

I am sticking with my original pick in this game even if Tom Brady has to throw a fully inflated football to win it. Please check out the link below for my full game preview as originally posted on Sports Betting Stats. I will also be posting links all week long to some of my top player and team prop bet picks for Sunday's game.

Super Bowl XLIX Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots Betting Pick

Saturday, January 17, 2015

NFC Championship Preview & Pick

Before the 2014 NFL regular season got underway, the defending Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks were +300 favorites to win the NFC again on BetOnline's futures odds. The betting odds that Green Bay would win this season's conference title were +700, which were the third-best odds on the board. The only team with lower odds other than the Seahawks was San Francisco at +400 and the 49ers did not even make the playoffs. This makes it safe to assume that the two best teams in the NFC will be battling it out for the title this Sunday afternoon at CenturyLink Field in Seattle.

The big question in this game is how will Packers' quarterback Aaron Rodger's performance be impacted by a nagging calf injury? At full strength on opening day, he had his issues against Seattle's shutdown defense in a 36-16 loss. Green Bay came into that Week 1 clash as a 4.5-point road underdog and this time around the current betting odds at BetOnline have the Packers listed as 7.5-point underdogs.

Given the situation with Rodgers' injury, it is easy to see why most of the betting public's money has gone towards the Seahawks in this matchup. Anyone who follows my picks on a regular basis is well aware that I usually have the tendency to go in the opposite direction when the betting becomes this one-sided. Rodgers may not be 100 percent, but even playing at 80 to 85 percent still makes him a better quarterback than 98 percent of the other signal-callers in this league.

I still do have my doubts that Green Bay can actually go into one of the toughest venues in the NFL and come away with a straight-up win, but I am loving that extra half point in the Packers' favor in what I see as a touchdown spread between Seattle and Green Bay at the final gun.

My complete preview and pick for Sunday's NFC Championship can be found at the link below to an article that was posted earlier this week on SportsBettingStats.com.

Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks Betting Pick

Sunday, January 11, 2015

NFL Divisional Playoffs Preview & Pick: Dallas vs. Green Bay

Anyone who read my preview and pick for last Sunday's Detroit at Dallas game is well aware that I was not only on the Cowboys' bandwagon, I was sitting in the front row blowing the horn the loudest. Maybe it was my subconscious way to jinx any true die-hard Eagles' fan's mortal enemy and it almost worked. I thought Dallas was going to roll in that game, but all Jerry's boys showed me was that the stage is starting to get a bit too big for his beloved franchise.

Bad calls go against teams in almost every NFL game, but the refs in that Wild Card matchup did everything within their power to get Dallas the win. The no-call on the obvious pass interference play completely change the complexion of that game and for good measure the homer zebras threw in a few defensive holding/interference penalties on the Lions in the ensuing drive after that blown call to make sure that the Cowboys scored the eventual winning touchdown.

This Sunday is going to be a completely different story in Green Bay as long as Aaron Rodger's injured calf can hold-up for all four quarters. The Packers are not the Lions and the Cowboys are not as good of a team that I may have led you to believe in my previous post. That will be evident in the final score on Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field unless the fix is once again in to get the Cowboys another improbable win in the playoffs.

The following is a link to my official preview and pick for Sunday's game in a previous post for Sports Betting Stats.


Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Pick

Friday, January 9, 2015

NFL Divisional Playoffs Total Line Picks

Even though I completely blew both my total line picks for last week's Wild Card Round of this season's NFL Playoffs by going UNDER in the Arizona vs. Carolina game and OVER in the Detroit vs. Dallas game, Doc's Sports is giving me one last chance to leave you with a pair of winners for this weekend's NFL Divisional Playoffs.

The only reason that the Panthers' game went OVER was the fact that Arizona's defense never bothered to show-up. Carolina is averaging around 21 points a game, so the 27 they scored in last Saturday night's win was just enough to sink my pick. I am more than confident that Seattle's defense will not let me down this Saturday night and I am banking on Carolina's defense to play well enough to keep this total UNDER the current 40-point line on Bovada's current board.

I am staying away from the Dallas game this week after the Cowboys displayed some shades of their former selves in a very sketchy 24-20 win against Detroit that stayed UNDER the 47.5-point closing line. I will be making a pick on the side in this game so be sure to check my blog on Saturday morning for a link to that preview and pick.

Instead, my other pick on the total line this week is the OVER in the Indianapolis vs. Denver game with the current betting odds set at 54 points. That is a pretty risky line to go in that direction, but I see this matchup turning into the ultimate shootout between the new young gun in the league Andrew Luck and the wiley old veteran Peyton Manning.

While I will not be releasing any total line picks for next Sunday's conference championships, I am working on Doc's to let me come back for one last encore this season with a total line pick for Super Bowl XLIX. In the meantime, be sure to check-out my complete preview for both of this weekend's picks in the following link.

NFL Totals Betting: Divisional Round Over and Under Predictions

Saturday, January 3, 2015

NFL Wild Card Previews- Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys

This weekend's Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs wraps things up this Sunday afternoon with a NFC clash between the Detroit Lions and the Dallas Cowboys. Anyone who follows this blog on a regular basis is well aware of the fact that there is no love lost between myself and Dallas; more specifically its team owner Jerry Jones. To me, he is a meddlesome egomaniac that refuses to admit that there are NFL executives in this world that are far more qualified to run the football operations of this team than he is. This franchise's past failures since the glory days of the early-90's when he did let people like Jimmie Johnson run the show are a testament to my analysis of the situation.

I have taken great pleasure in three-straight 8-8 seasons that all ended with a loss that cost the Cowboys the NFC East title. Things are different this time around and even I have to admit that Dallas may be on to something heading into this year's playoffs. A win on Sunday at home would extend the Cowboys' current winning streak to five games and send them into Green Bay next week with quite a head of steam. I can actually see Dallas winning that game, which would probably result in a trip to Seattle for the NFC Championship. That is where the ride probably comes to an end; however from what I have seen from the Cowboys over the past few games, they do have everything in place for a Super Bowl run.

All season long I have been doing NFL game previews and picks for a website called SportsBettingStats.com. The following is a link to my preview and pick for this Sunday's Dallas game in an article that was previously posted on the site.

Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Pick